Will Predictit Survive?
|Market Open Date||Market Close Date||Currency||Profit Fee|
Will Predictit be in operation in the US past February 15th, 2023? The CFTC has withdrawn Predictit's No-action letter, with an order to wind down all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on February 15, 2023. This market will resolve as yes if (1) the CFTC reverses this decision, and reinstates Predictit's no-action letter (thus, an early resolution is possible), (2) Predictit continues to operate in the US and take bets after February 15th, 2023. This could happen if, for example, the CFTC grants an extension of the deadline. Note that if they, for example, move offshore, and operate without the CFTC's blessing, this market will still resolve No, even if a few Americans continue to use the site. Also, if they have to close down temporarily (for longer than 48 hours) after which they plan to re-open under a different legal framework, then this market will still resolve as "No".
There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 2/16/2023
Update: Note that if Predictit continues to operate, but does not take new bets for a period of at least 48 hours, then this will resolve as "No".