Will NASA Land a Person on the Moon Before 2025? (BTC)


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 10.8%
European Decimal Odds: 9.259
American Odds: +825.9
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-08-25 2025-01-01 Bitcoin (BTC) 0%


Note that this market is denominated in bitcoin. This market will resolve as "yes" if NASA announces that a manned NASA mission lands on the Moon before December 31, 2024. 

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: January 1st, 2025