Will 2025 Be the Hottest Year on Record?
Market Information
| Market Open Date | Market Close Date | Currency | Taker Fee | Maker Subsidy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | 2026-01-15 | USD | 0.075% | -0.025% |
Rules
This market will resolve positively if the data for the unsmoothed Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 (1951-1980 Base Period) according to NASA is 1.29°C or greater when initially released. If this value is below 1.29°C, then the market will resolve to "No". Only the initial reported value will be considered for this market, and any future revisions will not impact market resolution.
Note: At the time of market creation, the highest previously recorded anomaly is 1.28°C for 2024.
This market will resolve according to official reporting by NASA/GISS (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt), specifically the value for 2025 under the "No_Smoothing" column. In the event that this specific URL is not made available or there are changes to the tabulation of the underlying by NASA, other reporting from NASA/GISS will be used (e.g. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/, https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).