Who Will Win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? (BTC)

Contract

Best Yes Price

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Contract

Best Yes Price

4.5

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Implied Probability: 4.5%
European Decimal Odds: 22.222
American Odds: +2122.2
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Best Yes Price

4

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Implied Probability: 4%
European Decimal Odds: 25
American Odds: +2400
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Best Yes Price

1

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Implied Probability: 1%
European Decimal Odds: 100
American Odds: +9900
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Best Yes Price

9

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 9%
European Decimal Odds: 11.111
American Odds: +1011.1
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Best Yes Price

1

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1%
European Decimal Odds: 100
American Odds: +9900
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Best Yes Price

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Implied Probability: -
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Contract

Best Yes Price

5

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 5%
European Decimal Odds: 20
American Odds: +1900
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Implied Probability: -
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Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
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Best Yes Price

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Best Yes Price

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
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Best Yes Price

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Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
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Contract

Best Yes Price

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Options

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Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-09-09 2024-10-01 Bitcoin (BTC) 0%

Rules

Note that this market is denominated in bitcoin (BTC). One "share" is one bitcoin. The market will resolve positively based on the individual who is the 2024 nominee of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Official statements from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or credible consensus reporting will be sufficient for resolution. Replacement of a nominee for any reason prior to election day but after the confirmation of the nominee at the Democratic National Convention will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: 10/01/2024