Will Ukraine Control Sievierodonetsk on October 25th, 2022?

Contract

Latest Yes Price

28¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 28%
European Decimal Odds: 3.571
American Odds: +257.1
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-09-14 2022-10-26 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively if Russia is no longer in total control of "Avtovokzal" (Bus Station) in Sievierodonetsk on October 25th, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. 

The primary resolution source for this market is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). As of early September, there have been reports of partisan fighting in Sievierodonetsk in Luhanska oblast. On the ISW's interactive map, the area is shaded in red to indicate Russian control and delineated with blue bars to show Ukrainian partisan warfare. Any area shaded in red on the ISW's interactive map will be considered under Russian control, regardless of partisan warfare. If any part of "Avtovokzal" is not under Russian control on October 25th, 2022, 11:59 PM this market will resolve as "Yes". If the totality of "Avtovokzal" is under Russian control (shaded red on ISW) this market will resolve as "No".  

In the case the ISW is not available, we will use liveuamap.com. If liveuamap is also not available, then this market will resolve as "No".

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 10/25/2022

Note: The ISW Map at time of market creation (09/14/22) is shown below, for reference.

Avtovokzal, Sievierodonetsk, Novoaidarskyi raion, Luhanska oblast, UKR