Will 2023 Be the Hottest Year on Record? (1.02°C+)

Market Resolved: YES


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-07-16 2024-01-15 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if the data for the unsmoothed Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 according to NASA is 1.02°C or greater when initially released. If this value is below 1.02°C, then the market will resolve to "No". Only the initial reported value will be considered for this market, and any future revisions will not impact market resolution.

This market will resolve according to official reporting by NASA/GISS (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt), specifically the value for 2023 under the "No_Smoothing" column. In the event that this specific URL is not made available, other reporting from NASA/GISS will be used (e.g. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/)

Note: At the time of market creation, the highest previously recorded anomalies are 1.01°C for 2016/2020. If these values are later revised, this will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.