Will the Room-Temperature Superconductor Be Replicated?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-07-31 2023-12-31 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if the room-temperature superconductor as described in "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) and companion paper (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) is replicated by at least two other independent research groups that share no affiliation with the authors of this paper, by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.

The results need not be reproduced in entirety, but any replications must show that the specific material proposed by the authors exhibits the properties of a superconductor (e.g. Type I, II, III) including near-zero electrical resistivity and a phase change as well as the Meissner Effect (excluding Type III that may not exhibit this property). In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 12/31/2023

Note: In the event that the paper(s) are retracted from Arxiv (including removed by the authors themselves), and a consensus of credible reporting determines that the results were fraudalent or otherwise fabricated, then the market may resolve to "No" sooner than the expiration date.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. For this market, that includes any official publication or reporting that results have been successfully replicated. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.