Will Ukraine Retake Control of Tokmak by November 15th?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 8%
European Decimal Odds: 12.5
American Odds: +1150
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-08-31 2023-11-16 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if, at any point in time before November 15, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, Russia is no longer in total control of "Lenina vulytsia" in Tokmak, Zaporizka oblast.

The primary resolution source for this market is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). As of August, there have been reports of partisan fighting in Tokmak in Zaporizka oblast. On the ISW's interactive map, the area is shaded in red to indicate Russian control and delineated with blue bars to show Ukrainian partisan warfare. Any area shaded in red on the ISW's interactive map will be considered under Russian control, regardless of partisan warfare. If any update on ISW's interactive map indicates that any part of "Lenina vulytsia" is not under Russian control by November 15th, 2023 at 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve as "Yes". If the totality of "Lenina vulytsia" remains under Russian control (shaded red on ISW) through the market end date, this market will resolve as "No". End date: 11/15/2023.

Note: The ISW Map at time of market creation (08/31/23) is shown below, for reference. 

Lenina vulytsia, Tokmak, Tokmatskyi raion, Zaporizka oblast, UKR

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.