What Will Be the Balance of Power in Congress after the 2024 Election?

Contract

Best Yes Price

29¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 29%
European Decimal Odds: 3.448
American Odds: +244.8
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Best Yes Price

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 5%
European Decimal Odds: 20
American Odds: +1900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Best Yes Price

--

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Best Yes Price

--

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-10-16 2025-03-01 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve to the bracket indicating the party control in the US Congress on March 1, 2025 at 11:59PM ET following the 2024 US General Election.

D Senate: 51+ U.S. Senators elected as a ballot-listed candidate with or otherwise publicly affiliated with the Democratic Party

R Senate: 51+ U.S. Senators elected as a ballot-listed candidate with or otherwise publicly affiliated with the Republican Party

D House: 218+ U.S. Representatives elected as a ballot-listed candidate with or otherwise publicly affiliated with the Democratic Party

R House: 218+ U.S. Representatives elected as a ballot-listed candidate with or otherwise publicly affiliated with the Republican Party

In the event that the US Senate has neither party with 51+ U.S. Senators, then the Vice President will be considered a U.S. Senator given their capacity to break ties as the effective President of the U.S. Senate. If none of the brackets represent the party control on March 1, 2025 at 11:59PM ET, then all brackets will resolve to "No".

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.