Will Israel Control Gaza City by December 1st, 2023?
|Market Open Date||Market Close Date||Currency||Profit Fee|
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Shijia Park in Gaza City (31.5019, 34.4667) is under the control of Israel, according to maps produced by the Institute of the Study of War (ISW), or if the ISW reports that the area of Gaza City, including Shijia Park, is under the control of Israel. It must claim "Israeli control" or similar (as opposed to "disputed" or "partisan fighting"). If such maps don't exist this will resolve according to other ISW reporting or, if the ISW does not comment on it, based on other credible news sources. If no credible sources report that Shijia Park in Gaza City has been taken, the market resolves to "No". Insight Prediction reserves the right to make a judgement call based on the best available evidence in the event that resolution is ambiguous.
For clarity, we have highlighted Shijia Park on the ISW map below with a red arrow, first zoomed in, and then zoomed out.
There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.
Update: The ISW is using the term "clearing operations", as opposed to "furtherst extent of claimed Israeli control". For this, we would consider "clearing operations" to mean Israeli control (the light blue shade on the ISW maps), but not "claimed furtherst Israeli advances" (the darker blue shading).