Will Trump Sweep Early Primaries?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-10-19 2024-02-25 USD 0%


Will Donald Trump sweep the early primaries and caucuses? This market will resolve to Yes if and only if Donald Trump wins Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Performance in the Virgin Islands or other primaries will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If the dates of these caucuses/primaries are later changed, the market will simply wait to resolve until those four states have completed their caucuses/primaries. If no primary/caucus is held in one of these states for whatever reason, this market will resolve No. This market will resolve based on official sources including the Federal Election Commission and the GOP. A consensus of credible reporting will also be sufficient if there is no ambiguity in the results.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.

Rules Clarification (02/03/2024): In the event that a state has both a primary and a caucus, only the event that awards delegates towards the 2024 Republican National Convention will count for the purposes of this market.