Will the 2023 NASA/GISS Temperature Anomaly be 1.15+?


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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-10-21 2024-01-15 USD 0%


This market will resolve positively if the unsmoothed Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 (1951-1980 Base Period) is 1.15°C or higher according to NASA/GISS when initially released. Only the initial reported value for 2023 will be considered for this market, and any future revisions will not impact market resolution.

This market will resolve according to official reporting by NASA/GISS (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt), specifically the value for 2023 under the "No_Smoothing" column. In the event that this specific URL is not made available, other reporting from NASA/GISS will be used (e.g. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).

Note: At the time of market creation, the highest previously recorded anomalies are 1.01°C for 2016/2020.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.