Who Will End Their Political Career First?

Contract

Best Yes Price

25¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 25%
European Decimal Odds: 4
American Odds: +300
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Best Yes Price

39¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 39%
European Decimal Odds: 2.564
American Odds: +156.4
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Best Yes Price

8.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 8.5%
European Decimal Odds: 11.765
American Odds: +1076.5
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Contract

Best Yes Price

--

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-10-25 2025-01-21 USD 0%

Rules

This is a market on who will either first leave office or first end their current political campaign for office. In the case of Donald Trump, if he ends his campaign for President or is defeated in the 2024 Presidential general election, before any of the other leaders leave office, then this market will resolve to Donald Trump. In the event that results are contested and Trump does not concede defeat, defeat will be finalized when the electoral votes are certified by the Vice-President of the United States. If there is no certification of votes by the Vice-President, then defeat will be finalized when the next President is inaugurated.

If Biden, Putin, or Netanyahu cease to be the President/Prime Minister of their respective nations before an end to Trump's bid for President, then this market will resolve in favor of the leader to leave office first.

Note: If Trump loses the Republican primary, but by the date of the Republican convention announces he will run for President as an independent, this market will not resolve until that campaign ends.

The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled.  This means that bets placed after announcement of a leader leaving office or confirmation will be returned. This could also include an announcement that one of these leaders has suffered a debilitating injury, such as a stroke or heart attack, or from from a car accident that ultimately results in him leaving office, or from an announcement that he will step down in the near future. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 22/1/2025 (Note, this market can be delayed if the results of the 2024 US Presidential election are delayed.)