Will a Human Have a Neuralink Chip Implanted by 4/20/2024?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 32%
European Decimal Odds: 3.125
American Odds: +212.5
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-11-02 2024-04-21 USD 0%


This market will resolve to "Yes" if a verified report or an official announcement from Neuralink or Elon Musk confirms that a human being has been implanted with a Neuralink brain-computer interface device by 11:59 PM ET on April 20, 2024. If no such confirmation is provided by the specified date the market will resolve to "No".

Note that Insight Prediction does not collect any fees on this market, but we do include taker fees which are paid in full to market makers. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled.

This means that bets placed after announcement of Netanyahu leaving office or confirmation will be returned. This could also include an announcement that Netanyahu has suffered a debilitating injury, such as a stroke or heart attack, or from from a car accident that ultimately results in him leaving office, or from an announcement that he will step down in the future. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.

The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .1 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .1 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.1*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.60, and the taker fee would also be $1.60. The full fee schedule is here. End Date: 1/1/2024