Will Russia Take Kyiv in 2024?


Best Yes Price


Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3%
European Decimal Odds: 33.333
American Odds: +3233.3
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2024-01-01 2024-12-31 USD 0.075% -0.025%


This is a market on whether Russia will take control of Kyiv in 2024. More specifically, we will like at whether Russia controls Maidan Square in central Kiev according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375. If the ISW is not available, then we will use other credible mapping sources or reporting. Early resolution is possible if Russia takes Kyiv before the end of the year. 

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.  End Date: 12/31/2024