Will 2024 Be the Hottest Year on Record?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 89.9%
European Decimal Odds: 1.112
American Odds: -890.1
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2024-01-03 2025-03-15 USD 0.075% -0.025%


This market will resolve positively if the data for the unsmoothed Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 (1951-1980 Base Period) according to NASA is 1.18°C or greater when initially released. If this value is below 1.18°C, then the market will resolve to "No". Only the initial reported value will be considered for this market, and any future revisions will not impact market resolution.

This market will resolve according to official reporting by NASA/GISS (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt), specifically the value for 2024 under the "No_Smoothing" column. In the event that this specific URL is not made available or there are changes to the tabulation of the underlying by NASA, other reporting from NASA/GISS will be used (e.g. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/, https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).