Will the Fed Cut Rates by May 1?

Contract

Best Yes Price

2.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2.5%
European Decimal Odds: 40
American Odds: +3900
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2024-02-13 2024-02-01 05:26 ET 2024-05-01 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 6, 2023 ET and May 1, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market may not resolve to "No" until May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.