Will April 2024 be NASA's Hottest April on Record?

Market Expired

Contract

Best Yes Price

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Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2024-03-22 2024-05-17 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively if the unsmoothed Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2024 (1951-1980 Base Period) is 1.14°C or higher according to NASA/GISS when initially released. Only the initial reported value for April 2024 will be considered for this market, and any future revisions will not impact market resolution.

This market will resolve according to official reporting by NASA/GISS (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt), specifically the column for "Mar" under the "2024" row. In the event that this specific URL is not made available, other reporting from NASA/GISS will be used (e.g. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).

Note: At the time of market creation, the highest previously recorded anomaly is 1.13°C for April 2020.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.