Which Party will Control the U.S. Senate after the 2024 election?


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Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-05-20 2024-02-02 10:00 ET 2024-11-05 USD 0.075%


The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market will resolve to "Democrats" if following the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, Democrats have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and a Democrat Vice President. It will resolve to "Republicans" under the same conditions for Republicans. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2024 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with either Democrats or Republicans, this market will resolve 50-50. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2024 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2024 election results.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.