Iran Nuke by July 31?

Contract

Best Yes Price

3.4¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3.4%
European Decimal Odds: 29.412
American Odds: +2841.2
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-05-20 2024-04-15 12:21 ET 2024-08-01 USD 0.075%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.