Iran Nuke by July 31?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3.4%
European Decimal Odds: 29.412
American Odds: +2841.2
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-05-20 2024-04-15 12:21 ET 2024-08-01 USD 0.075%


This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.