Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 5.5%
European Decimal Odds: 18.182
American Odds: +1718.2
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-06-05 2024-02-01 05:26 ET 2024-12-31 USD 0.075%


This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.