Will China Invade Taiwan in 2024?

Contract

Best Yes Price

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 9%
European Decimal Odds: 11.111
American Odds: +1011.1
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-06-09 2024-02-01 05:26 ET 2024-12-31 USD 0.075%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China starts a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of mainland Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (small disputed islands such as the Spratly Islands do not count). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the taker fee to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.