Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by the First Debate?
Market Information
| Market Open Date | Market Close Date | Currency | Taker Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-04 | 2024-10-09 | USD | 0.075% |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between August 30 and September 10th, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.
If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 6 figures will not be considered.
The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.
Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.