Will Ayatollah Khamenei Remain Supreme Leader of Iran Through 2022?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 97%
European Decimal Odds: 1.031
American Odds: -3233.3
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-09-28 2023-01-01 USD 0%


This market shall resolve positively if Ayatollah Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran for the duration of 2022. If Ayatollah Khamenei is no longer considered the Supreme Leader of Iran at any point in 2022, then the market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the CIA website (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/iran/). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be sufficient to resolve the market. Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgement in the event of any irregularity or controversy. End Date: 01/01/2023.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.

Update: The "Bet Locks" feature has been enabled on 11/27/2022.  This means that bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours.