Will Elon Musk Father Another Child Before August 2023?
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This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by July 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk. If no new spawn of Elon Musk have been reported by July 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then the market will resolve to “No”. Any child must have been born by the market end date, and pregnancy reports will not be sufficient to resolve the market. If a child is not reported or announced by the end date and is later discovered to have been born prior to the end date, this will have no bearing on market resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a child will be considered to be discovered if they are not one of the nine living children confirmed at the time of this market’s conception, regardless of when the child was born. Name changes of existing children and legally adopted last names of any possible new children will not affect the resolution of this market. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment. End Date: 08/01/2023
Twins (Shivon Zilis)
Exa Dark Sideræl (Grimes)
X AE A-XII (Grimes)
Kai, Saxon and Damian (Justine Wilson)
Griffin and Vivian (Justine Wilson)
There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.
Update (12/7/2022): To address trader concerns, only children that were not discovered at the time of market creation will lead to resolution. Elon Musk's first child (Nevada Alexander Musk) passed away ten weeks after birth, and this has previously been disclosed. As a separate clarification, a future miscarriage will also be insufficient to resolve the market. Any newly discovered children must have been alive at birth.