Which 2022 Senate Race Will Be the Closest?

Contract

Georgia

Best Yes Price

25¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 25%
European Decimal Odds: 4
American Odds: +300
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Contract

Nevada

Best Yes Price

92¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 92%
European Decimal Odds: 1.087
American Odds: -1150
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Contract

New Hampshire

Best Yes Price

19.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 19.5%
European Decimal Odds: 5.128
American Odds: +412.8
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Contract

Arizona

Best Yes Price

16.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 16.5%
European Decimal Odds: 6.061
American Odds: +506.1
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Contract

Pennsylvania

Best Yes Price

15.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 15.5%
European Decimal Odds: 6.452
American Odds: +545.2
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Contract

Colorado

Best Yes Price

9.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 9.5%
European Decimal Odds: 10.526
American Odds: +952.6
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Contract

Alaska

Best Yes Price

7.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 7.5%
European Decimal Odds: 13.333
American Odds: +1233.3
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Contract

Wisconsin

Best Yes Price

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2%
European Decimal Odds: 50
American Odds: +4900
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Contract

Ohio

Best Yes Price

6.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 6.5%
European Decimal Odds: 15.385
American Odds: +1438.5
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Contract

North Carolina

Best Yes Price

5.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 5.5%
European Decimal Odds: 18.182
American Odds: +1718.2
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Contract

Oregon

Best Yes Price

4.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 4.5%
European Decimal Odds: 22.222
American Odds: +2122.2
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Contract

Florida

Best Yes Price

3.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 3.5%
European Decimal Odds: 28.571
American Odds: +2757.1
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Contract

Missouri

Best Yes Price

2.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 2.5%
European Decimal Odds: 40
American Odds: +3900
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Contract

Washington

Best Yes Price

10¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 10%
European Decimal Odds: 10
American Odds: +900
Buy
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-11-03 2023-03-01 USD 0%

Rules

This market will resolve positively to the bracket containing the 2022 US Senate race that has the smallest margin of victory (percentage difference) between the first and second place candidates. For races utilizing RCV, the published popular vote counts for the final round will be used. If any election results in a runoff or secondary election, then the results of the runoff will be what is considered for this market. End Date: 03/01/2023

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.