Will Russia Invade Ukraine in 2022?

Contract

Russia vs Ukraine
Russia vs Ukraine

Latest Yes Price

99.8¢

Options

Latest Price Implies

Implied Probability: 99.8%
European Decimal Odds: 1.002
American Odds: -49900
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-01-20 2023-11-01 USD 3%

Rules

This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. Question via Metaculus. End Date: 01/01/2023