Will Russia Conquer the Donbass by the End of July 2022?

Market Resolved: NO


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2022-03-31 2022-08-04 USD 3%


This market will resolve positively if at least 95% (50,540 km2) of the territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts are under the de facto control of any entity or entities other than the EU recognized Ukrainian Government on July 31, 11:59 PM EST.

The Donetsk Oblast is 26,517 km2 and the Luhansk Oblast is 26,683km2 totaling 53,200 km2. Accordingly, 95% of these regions’ territory would amount to 50,540 km2.

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion on 2/23/2022 the Russian backed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) controlled 17,633 km2 of territory in Donetsk and Luhansk.

This market will be resolved using the following resources as well as other sources of credible reporting and OSINT:

  1. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukraine-conflict-updates
  2. https://liveuamap.com/
  3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
  4. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

Ukraine spans an area of 603,628 km2 of which about 43744 km² or 7,2% of which was occupied by Russia and Russian backed forces prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion on 2/23/2022.

There is a 3% profit fee for this market. End date 07/31/2022.