Will PredictIt Release a New Market Before 2024?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 80%
European Decimal Odds: 1.25
American Odds: -400
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-05-13 2024-01-01 USD 0%


This contract will resolve positively if PredictIt releases at least one new market (https://www.predictit.org/markets) by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. For the purposes of this contract, PredictIt must continue to operate in the US and allow bets from US traders in any new market(s). Changes to existing markets or addition of new brackets to existing markets will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If PredictIt changes their website's URL or launches a new trading platform that is still open to US traders, then any new market(s) on that platform will be considered. If no new market is added by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then this contract will resolve to "No". End Date: 01/01/2024

Context: The CFTC originally withdrew PredictIt's no-action letter (NAL), with an order to wind down all related and remaining listed contracts and positions comprising all associated open interest in such market no later than 11:59PM ET on February 15, 2023. On January 26, 2023, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an injunction halting the closure and providing temporary relief to allow PredictIt to operate while a decision is made by the courts. On March 2, 2023, the CFTC issued a new letter revoking the NAL after having rescinded their original withdrawal (an attempt to circumvent the ongoing case in the courts) and gave until April 5, 2023 for Victoria University of Wellington (VUW) to provide a response.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. For this market, that includes any court decision or public release of court documents. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.