Will RFK Jr. Harm Democrats?

Contract

Best Yes Price

54¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 54%
European Decimal Odds: 1.852
American Odds: -117.4
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
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Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Profit Fee
2023-10-10 2024-11-10 USD 0%

Rules

U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) has announced that he will run as an independent. This is a market on whether an average of Real Clear Politics (RCP) polls, taken within 20 days of the 2024 US Presidential election, will indicate that the Democratic candidate polls comparatively worse than the 2nd leading candidate when RFK Jr. is included in a poll vs. when he is not included. (Thus, if the Democrat's polling average is 1% higher than the 2nd leading candidate's polling average without RFK Jr. in the poll, but 1% worse with RFK Jr. in the poll, then this market would resolve "Yes".) If no pollsters included by RCP conduct polls with and without RFK Jr., for example because RFK Jr. later decides to drop out of the race, then this market will resolve "No". Whether additional minor candidates are included in the poll with RFK Jr., is not material. If RCP is not available, then we will use 538. In the event of any ambiguity or controversy, Insight Prediction reserves the right of judgment.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that is matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here. The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled for this market, so bets placed after announcement or confirmation will be returned. Funds from liquidated positions will be unable to be withdrawn or traded for 72-hours. See FAQ for further information.