Will Michelle Obama Announce a Presidential Run Before August?

Contract

Best Yes Price

1.5¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 1.5%
European Decimal Odds: 66.667
American Odds: +6566.7
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Start Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee
2024-02-08 2024-02-01 15:00 ET 2024-07-31 USD 0.075%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michelle Obama, former First Lady of the United States, announces that she is running for president of the United States of America in 2024 by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Michelle Obama will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed to run for president of the United States, or whether she actually files to run for president in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Michelle Obama (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her legal representation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

There are "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later.  The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .1*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.075*(20/100)*(80/100) = $1.20.