Will There Be a Nuclear Explosion in Ukraine Before 2025?


Best Yes Price



Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: -
European Decimal Odds: -
American Odds: -
Ask Price Ask Size
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2024-07-08 2025-01-01 USD 0.075% -0.025%


This question will resolve "Yes" if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announces that there has been an accident or incident level 4 or higher according to the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) in Ukraine by 11:59:59PM ET on December 31st, 2024. The INES scale is from 0 to 7, and was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA in order to enable prompt communication of the severity of nuclear accidents.

A level 4 incident is described by the IAEA as "an accident with local consequences". 

Impact on people and environment:

  • Minor release of radioactive material unlikely to result in implementation of planned countermeasures other than local food controls.
  • At least one death from radiation.

Impact on radiological barriers and control:

  • Fuel melt or damage to fuel resulting in more than 0.1% release of core inventory.
  • Release of significant quantities of radioactive material within an installation with a high probability of significant public exposure.

If there is a nuclear incident, but either the IAEA does not report it, or it is categorized as level 3 or below, or not categorized, then this market will resolve as "No". We will use Ukraine's pre-2014 borders, which include Crimea and the Donbass.

The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled.  This means that bets placed after confirmation of a nuclear explosion or breaking news that suggests or implies one has occurred, may be returned.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The taker fees apply when you match an existing order on the order book, whereas the maker subsidy happens when you place an unmatched order that can be matched later. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.