Initiative 2117: Will Washington Repeal the “Cap and Trade” Program?

Contract

Best Yes Price

63¢

Options

Best Price Implies

Implied Probability: 63%
European Decimal Odds: 1.587
American Odds: -170.3
Buy
Ask Price Ask Size
Sell
Bid Price Bid Size

Market Information

Market Open Date Market Close Date Currency Taker Fee Maker Subsidy
2024-08-05 2024-11-07 USD 0.075% -0.025%

Rules

On November 5th, 2024, a vote is slated to occur in the US state of Washington on Initiative 2117: Prohibit Carbon Tax Credit Trading and Repeal Carbon Cap-and-Invest Program Measure (https://src.wastateleg.org/initiative-2117-stop-hidden-gas-tax/), which if passed would ban the state's “cap and trade” program and repeal the Climate Commitment Act (2021). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Initiative 2117 on the November 5, 2024 Washington ballot passes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason a vote on Initiative 2117 does not occur by November 15, 2024, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of Washington, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

There are "maker subsidies" and "taker fees" on this market. The maker subsidies are .025 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Maker Subsidy per share = .025*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). The taker fees are .075 times the price, times the potential profit (e.g., Taker Fee per share = .075*Price/100*(1-Price/100)). Thus, the maker subsidy to buy 100 shares at 20 cents would be: 100*.025*(20/100)*(80/100) = $0.40, and the taker fee would be $1.20. The full fee schedule is here.